1. Confirm the market definition
Record the player, statistic, line, direction, price, sportsbook, and event. Check whether overtime counts and whether the operator’s house rules require the player to start or simply participate.
A correct name with the wrong line is still the wrong comparison. Alternative lines and combined-stat markets need their own records.
2. Establish role and opportunity
Minutes, snaps, routes, plate appearances, lineup position, and usage often create the opportunity behind a counting statistic. Confirm expected role before extrapolating from recent box scores.
If the role changed, split the sample around that change. A season average can hide a new rotation, injury replacement, or workload restriction.
3. Verify availability and surrounding injuries
Use current team or league availability information where possible. A teammate’s absence can change volume, but the effect is not always one-directional: defensive attention, lineup efficiency, and game competitiveness may change too.
Timestamp injury information. A report from the previous day can be stale by the time the market is reviewed.
4. Match context to the actual statistic
A broad claim such as ‘the opponent has a bad defense’ is rarely specific enough. Identify the pathway: pace, shot profile, coverage, rebound chances, strikeout tendency, or another mechanism tied to the selected statistic.
Treat small matchup samples carefully. One or two prior games can be memorable without being representative.
5. Compare price and movement
Check whether the same line is available elsewhere and whether the market moved after news. A strong research case can still be attached to a price that already absorbed the information.
Finish by writing the strongest reason the prop could fail. If that countercase cannot be stated fairly, the review is probably too attached to one narrative.
- Exact line and price match
- Expected opportunity
- Current availability
- Relevant matchup mechanism
- Market movement and timestamp
- Strongest counterargument