Tailgate intelligence

Today's Edge

Tailgate intelligence

Today's Edge

AI breakdowns of today's games — injuries, form & the angle, cited.

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Featured · NFL9/13 - 1:00 PM EDT

Market is overpricing Cincinnati at 63% win probability when ESPN projects them at just 60.1%, a 3-point gap favoring Tampa Bay underdogs at +162.

The market is undervaluing Seattle's injury depth concerns—four Seahawks are questionable with surgery complications, and the ESPN model only gives Seattle 62.9% despite market pricing it at 65%, suggesting modest value in the Patriots at +176.

Market pricing the Rams at 62% win probability significantly exceeds ESPN's 57.6% model projection, favoring San Francisco at +154.

9/13 - 1:00 PM EDT

Market has Lions at 75% win probability despite ESPN projecting only 73.5%, suggesting modest overvaluation of Detroit—but the gap is minimal and injury uncertainty on both sides (particularly Detroit's O-line with Sewell questionable and their tight end depth with LaPorta surgery-sidelined) makes this a near-neutral spot.

9/13 - 1:00 PM EDT

Tennessee is favored at 58% market probability but ESPN projects them at 62%, suggesting modest value on the Titans despite a thin edge.

9/13 - 1:00 PM EDT

Ravens favored at 64% win probability across the market, but ESPN's model projects them at only 61.4%—a modest 2.6-point undervaluation that slightly favors Ravens backers at current -197 odds.

9/13 - 1:00 PM EDT

Atlanta's injury crisis at QB (Penix Jr. questionable post-surgery) and LB depth (Ojulari questionable) creates massive uncertainty that the market has only partially priced in—Steelers are favored at 59% while ESPN projects them at 58%, leaving little edge despite the Falcons' 5-man injury report.

9/13 - 1:00 PM EDT

ESPN model gives Bears 61.7% win probability while the market is priced at only 56%, suggesting Bears are undervalued as a road favorite.

9/13 - 1:00 PM EDT

Jacksonville's 76% win projection is perfectly aligned with the de-vigged market (76% implied), offering no edge on the moneyline, but Cleveland's injury depth at offensive line (Jones, Jenkins both questionable) vs. Jacksonville's cornerback uncertainties (Lewis questionable post-surgery) creates potential value in game flow rather than straight sides.

9/13 - 1:00 PM EDT

Market gives Bills 51% win probability despite ESPN's model favoring them at only 54.2%, suggesting limited edge on either side with significant uncertainty around both teams' injury situations.

9/13 - 4:25 PM EDT

Market undervalues Miami's away-dog position—ESPN projects Raiders at 59% but market has inflated that to 62%, creating a value opportunity on Dolphins at +153.

9/13 - 4:25 PM EDT

Market pricing favors the Vikings at 58% implied probability while ESPN projects Packers at 57.4%, creating a near pick-em game despite Vegas showing -120 Packers—indicating sharp money may be undervaluing Minnesota at home.

9/13 - 4:25 PM EDT

Philadelphia is heavily favored despite significant injury uncertainty on both lines, with the Eagles at 66% market probability versus a 65.5% ESPN projection—minimal edge either direction, but multiple key Eagles defenders (Greenard, Johnson) questionable creates downside risk for the favorite.

9/13 - 4:25 PM EDT

Chargers' injury severity at left tackle (Alt, Slater both questionable post-surgery) creates offensive line vulnerability despite heavy market consensus, warranting caution on the -619 favorite.

9/13 - 8:20 PM EDT

Market and ESPN align on Cowboys favoring Dallas (55-56%), but Giants are missing three potential defensive linemen while Cowboys have five questionable players of varying severity, creating transparency imbalance.

9/14 - 8:15 PM EDT

Both teams face significant quarterback uncertainty with Patrick Mahomes (Surgery) and Bo Nix (Surgery) both questionable, but the market has only priced in a 1.4-point spread discrepancy between ESPN's 59.4% Chiefs projection and the de-vigged market's 58% probability.